Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1077

   Mesoscale Discussion 1077
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0347 PM CDT Mon Jun 02 2025

   Areas affected...Northeastern Colorado northeastward through
   southwestern MN

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 022047Z - 022245Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development is likely this afternoon and
   evening along a cold front across much of central Nebraska and
   adjacent areas. Severe wind gusts and large hail will be the main
   threats.

   DISCUSSION...A Cu field is developing this afternoon across central
   Nebraska to the south of a slowly sagging cold front. Very large
   instability is present with temperatures rising into the upper 80s
   and low 90s F across the region. Continued boundary-layer mixing
   should erode any remaining inhibition, supporting convection
   initiating in the next couple of hours. A number of factors should
   contribute to quickly amalgamating storms, including widespread
   initiation, largely line-parallel (and relatively modest) bulk shear
   vectors, and ML LCLs between 1500-2000 m AGL. Large hail will be
   possible with the strongest cores, particularly early in individual
   storms' lifecycles, with a transition to a more widespread wind
   threat likely during the evening. A tornado or two cannot be ruled
   out amidst possibly complex storm interactions and/or stronger
   updrafts interacting with locally enhanced surface vertical
   vorticity near the front. A watch is possible this afternoon to
   address these threats.

   ..Flournoy/Smith.. 06/02/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MPX...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...GLD...BOU...

   LAT...LON   39960136 40280200 40940209 41290191 41440155 41779997
               42379869 43129755 44109656 44689621 44809557 44439505
               43579497 42869528 41449637 40529804 39979977 39960136 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN