Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1074

   Mesoscale Discussion 1074
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0214 PM CDT Mon Jun 02 2025

   Areas affected...Southeastern Wyoming and northeastern Colorado into
   western Nebraska

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 021914Z - 022115Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development is likely this afternoon, posing
   a threat primarily for severe wind gusts and large hail.

   DISCUSSION...Congested Cu are present in visible satellite imagery
   across southeastern Wyoming, especially along the higher terrain in
   advance of a slowly-southward-sagging cold front. A surface low is
   developing in northeastern Colorado, promoting backing southeasterly
   low-level flow and some moisture advection into the area. Limited
   upper-level cloudiness has supported temperatures rising into the
   mid-/upper-70s across the area, likely yielding minimal convective
   inhibition in the short term.

   As the cold front continues to move southward and a mid-level wave
   impinges on the region, scattered thunderstorm development appears
   likely in the next couple hours. 12z HREF guidance depicts multiple
   stronger updrafts developing off the Laramie Mountains and moving
   east into a well-mixed and unstable airmass. Amidst modest bulk
   shear values (~30-35 kts) and relatively straight shear profiles,
   some splitting supercells and mixed-mode storms are possible. The
   primary threats should be large hail and local severe wind gusts
   with the stronger cores, especially as they mature in the Nebraska
   Panhandle.

   Additional thunderstorms are expected in western Nebraska and points
   eastward as storms erupt along the cold front later this
   afternoon/evening. Trends will continue to be monitored in that
   region for possible MCD/watch issuance there.

   ..Flournoy/Smith.. 06/02/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...GLD...BOU...CYS...RIW...

   LAT...LON   40890635 41500677 42540664 43230562 43400467 43350327
               42760215 41840178 40660197 40180287 40350481 40890635 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN