Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1073

   Mesoscale Discussion 1073
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0120 PM CDT Mon Jun 02 2025

   Areas affected...Eastern South Dakota into western Minnesota and the
   vicinity

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 021820Z - 021945Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorm development is currently underway
   across eastern South Dakota into western Minnesota and adjacent
   areas. Locally strong to severe winds and large hail are possible
   with this round of storms.

   DISCUSSION...Scattered thunderstorms have developed in northeastern
   South Dakota along a cold front draped from west-central Minnesota
   southwestward through south-central South Dakota. Upstream, a belt
   of stronger mid-level flow (50-60 kts) is present in upper-level
   water vapor imagery and moving eastward into the Dakotas. Current
   mesoanalysis depicts some remaining inhibition, but sufficient lapse
   rates and instability aloft exist for a local hail/wind threat with
   ongoing storms. A mesoscale convective vortex (MCV) is present just
   upstream of this convection, which is likely modifying at least the
   kinematic environment locally to favor storm persistence. Some
   intensification is possible, but it seems more likely that they
   remain elevated and pose a less-expansive severe threat over the
   next couple hours.

   Upstream, synoptic ascent from the approaching mid-level wave and
   warming surface temperatures should contribute to additional
   convective development in southeastern South Dakota. Short-term
   convection-allowing guidance depicts this occurring later this
   afternoon as boundary-layer destabilization progresses. Have
   highlighted this area for now given uncertainties with the southward
   extent of MCV-driven initiation. A watch for this area appears
   unlikely in the short term, but trends will continue to be monitored
   for possible watch issuance later this afternoon.

   ..Flournoy/Smith.. 06/02/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...DMX...FGF...FSD...OAX...ABR...

   LAT...LON   45709759 46279701 46759626 46769520 46419447 45159426
               43959458 42919501 42269587 42109661 42259726 42659778
               43679820 44889819 45709759 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN