Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1072

   Mesoscale Discussion 1072
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0110 PM CDT Mon Jun 02 2025

   Areas affected...Far eastern New Mexico and West Texas into the
   TX/OK Panhandles

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 021810Z - 021945Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will develop this afternoon with a threat
   for severe wind. A severe thunderstorm watch is likely by
   mid-afternoon.

   DISCUSSION...A broad dryline across the southern High Plains is
   starting to sharpen as dewpoints are now into the low 70s across the
   eastern Texas Panhandle with dewpoints in the low 50s across far
   eastern New Mexico. This currently yields around 1000 to 2000 J/kg
   MLCAPE with some inhibition (per 18Z SPC mesoanalysis). However,
   recent satellite trends across eastern New Mexico suggest inhibition
   is quickly eroding with thunderstorm development potentially
   imminent. Very steep lapse rates in the lowest 5km will be very
   favorable for severe wind gusts with any convection that develops.
   Storms may pose some large hail threat initially, but with severe
   wind gusts preferred, expect expanding outflow and a linear mode to
   quickly takeover. Once a line of storms develops across the Texas
   Panhandle into West Texas, a broad area of severe wind gusts is
   likely along this squall line as it moves east. Wind gusts of 65 to
   80 mph are likely with some 90+ mph wind gusts possible.

   A severe thunderstorm watch will likely be issued by mid-afternoon
   to address this threat.

   ..Bentley/Smith.. 06/02/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   33730411 34230411 35580388 36630309 36900192 37010031
               36800000 36049986 34579998 33520016 32740065 32370155
               32210270 32240340 32480405 33730411 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...85-100 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN