Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1069

   Mesoscale Discussion 1069
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0805 PM CDT Sun Jun 01 2025

   Areas affected...North-central/northeast Wyoming

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 020105Z - 020230Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Severe winds and isolated large hail are possible with
   storms this evening. A watch is not expected.

   DISCUSSION...Outflow pushing westward has recently interacted with
   portions of the Big Horns and promoted rather rapid convective
   development despite very modest buoyancy. Additional activity has
   also developed along the surface boundary. Given the steep mid-level
   lapse rates sampled by the 00Z RIW sounding and 25-30 kts of shear,
   a couple strong to severe storms are possible early this evening.
   The primary concern would be severe wind gusts with isolated large
   hail possible as well. A cell in Natrona county did show some signs
   of weak low-level rotation. This is likely due to the modest surface
   vorticity along the boundary. The tornado threat is quite low, but a
   brief spin-up in this scenario could occur.

   ..Wendt/Hart.. 06/02/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...UNR...CYS...BYZ...RIW...

   LAT...LON   43610794 44430729 44720594 44860483 44700453 44190469
               43840503 43190569 42770710 42950760 43610794 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN