Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1066

   Mesoscale Discussion 1066
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0618 PM CDT Sun Jun 01 2025

   Areas affected...Parts of central/north-central TX

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 352...

   Valid 012318Z - 020045Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 352
   continues.

   SUMMARY...A few supercells remain possible into this evening, with a
   threat of large hail, locally damaging wind, and possibly a tornado.

   DISCUSSION...One longer-lived supercell is ongoing northeast of
   Austin as of 2315 UTC, along a southward-moving outflow. Other
   renewed storm development is ongoing across north-central TX, near
   the intersection of the modifying outflow and a quasistationary
   west-to-east oriented surface boundary. MLCAPE of 2500 J/kg or
   greater and 35-45 kt of northwesterly deep-layer shear will continue
   to support supercell development through the early evening, with a
   threat of very large hail and localized damaging gusts. While
   low-level flow is generally weak, strongly veering flow in the
   lowest 3 km is supporting effective SRH of greater than 150 m2/s2 to
   the cool side of the modifying outflow boundary. This could support
   some tornado potential with any intense right-moving supercells that
   are able to propagate southward in the vicinity of the boundary. 

   Longevity of the southernmost cell is uncertain as it encounters
   gradually warming midlevel temperatures and decreasing buoyancy, but
   local expansion of WW 352 may be needed if it continues to propagate
   southward across central TX.

   ..Dean/Hart.. 06/01/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT...

   LAT...LON   32989932 32939803 32939725 32749693 32469675 31899652
               31289641 30929640 30629640 30369646 30179685 30229737
               30639777 31139802 31499834 31769857 32109892 32679934
               32989932 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN