Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1063

   Mesoscale Discussion 1063
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0213 PM CDT Sun Jun 01 2025

   Areas affected...Parts of western/central North Carolina and far
   northern South Carolina

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 011913Z - 012145Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to continue
   developing/advancing eastward across western/central NC and far
   northern SC through the afternoon. The strongest storms will be
   capable of producing locally damaging wind gusts and marginally
   severe hail. The severe threat is expected to remain too isolated
   for a watch.

   DISCUSSION...Along the southern periphery of a large-scale trough
   over the Northeast, VWP data and earlier 12Z soundings sampled a
   belt of 40-50 kt midlevel westerly flow across NC. Here,
   differential heating along a weak E/W-oriented surface boundary is
   supporting isolated to widely scattered showers, which should
   continue to deepening into thunderstorms -- given sufficient (albeit
   weak) surface-based instability. The moderate/strong westerly flow
   aloft is yielding elongated/mostly straight hodographs (around 40 kt
   of effective shear), which could promote localized convective
   organization into small clusters capable of locally damaging wind
   gusts and perhaps marginally severe hail. Current thinking is that
   the overall severe threat will remain too isolated for a watch,
   though convective trends will be monitored.

   ..Weinman/Guyer.. 06/01/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CAE...GSP...MRX...

   LAT...LON   34357869 34367911 34657986 34888109 35348213 35698227
               35998223 36258187 36348146 36157885 35827808 35277793
               34717812 34357869 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN