Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1058

   Mesoscale Discussion 1058
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0339 AM CDT Sun Jun 01 2025

   Areas affected...Western and Central Oklahoma

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 351...

   Valid 010839Z - 011045Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 351
   continues.

   SUMMARY...The severe threat is expected to increase over parts of
   western and central Oklahoma over the next few hours. Damaging wind
   gusts and isolated large hail will be the primary threats.

   DISCUSSION...The latest RAP continues to show a pocket of moderate
   instability over western Oklahoma, where MUCAPE is estimated in the
   1000 to 1500 J/kg range. Over the last couple of hours, storms have
   developed along the eastern edge of this pocket of instability, then
   intensified and moved southeastward into less unstable air. This
   trend is expected to continue, with additional severe storms most
   likely to develop in northwestern and west-central Oklahoma over the
   next 2 to 3 hours. A more persistent line or cluster of organized
   storms is expected to form, moving south-southeastward along or near
   the I-35 corridor. Forecast soundings suggest that effective shear
   has increased over the last couple of hours, as a mid-level jet has
   moved southeastward into Oklahoma. This, combined with 700-500 mb
   lapse rates near 7 C/km, should be favorable for isolated large
   hail. The potential for damaging wind gusts may increase, especially
   if an organized cluster or line segment can develop.

   ..Broyles/Bunting.. 06/01/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...

   LAT...LON   34049644 34049740 34219837 34399920 34909954 35949954
               36369892 36369733 36009601 34529594 34049644 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN