Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1056

   Mesoscale Discussion 1056
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0304 PM CDT Sat May 31 2025

   Areas affected...Parts of eastern North Carolina and southeastern
   Virginia

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 312004Z - 312200Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...A couple locally damaging wind gusts may accompany
   eastward-moving thunderstorms this afternoon.

   DISCUSSION...Convection is gradually deepening in the left exit
   region of a west-northwesterly midlevel jet across parts of northern
   NC. This activity will continue spreading eastward across eastern NC
   and southeastern VA this afternoon, where steepened low/midlevel
   lapse rates and a long/straight hodograph (40-50 kt of effective
   shear) could support a couple small, briefly organized storm
   clusters. Locally damaging wind gusts may accompany any stronger
   storms that can evolve, though weak instability and a lack of
   focused mesoscale ascent should limit the overall severe risk.

   ..Weinman/Hart.. 05/31/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK...

   LAT...LON   35237545 34647636 34607748 35107862 35507891 36177888
               36517874 36747847 37017803 37117744 36977605 36747580
               35747539 35237545 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN