Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1055

   Mesoscale Discussion 1055
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1232 PM CDT Sat May 31 2025

   Areas affected...Parts of the central Appalachians and Piedmont

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 311732Z - 311930Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...A couple strong to locally damaging gusts and small hail
   are possible through the afternoon.

   DISCUSSION...Widely scattered thunderstorms are evolving
   southeastward across parts of the central Appalachians -- focused
   within the left exit region of a robust midlevel jet streak. Limited
   boundary-layer moisture (upper 40s to lower 50s dewpoints) are
   yielding weak buoyancy, however, steep midlevel lapse rates and
   straight/elongated hodographs (40-50 kt of effective shear) could
   still support transient storm intensification/organization. Given
   30-40-kt winds in the lowest 2 km AGL (per VWP data), convective
   momentum transport may favor a couple strong to locally damaging
   gusts through the afternoon, and small hail will also be possible.

   ..Weinman/Hart.. 05/31/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...RAH...RNK...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL...

   LAT...LON   36147989 36168147 36438253 36628285 37038298 37608264
               37828213 37958129 37958056 37717991 37157923 36437919
               36147989 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN