Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1054

   Mesoscale Discussion 1054
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1052 AM CDT Sat May 31 2025

   Areas affected...Parts of the coastal Mid-Atlantic

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 311552Z - 311815Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms capable of producing locally damaging wind
   gusts and marginally severe hail will spread/develop
   east-southeastward across the coastal Mid-Atlantic states through
   this afternoon. Watch issuance is uncertain, though trends are being
   monitored.

   DISCUSSION...In the wake of a lead midlevel impulse tracking
   northeastward across the Northeast, water-vapor imagery and VWP data
   show a trailing impulse and related speed maximum advancing
   east-southeastward toward the Mid-Atlantic states -- within the base
   of a larger-scale trough. While 12Z soundings across the
   Mid-Atlantic sampled poor deep-layer lapse rates on the backside of
   the lead impulse and overnight convection, upstream soundings show
   cold temperatures aloft and related steep midlevel lapse rates
   advancing toward the area in tandem with the trailing impulse.
   Despite partially modified/recycled boundary-layer moisture
   (middle/upper 50s dewpoints), these steep midlevel lapse rates and
   diurnal heating in cloud breaks will still yield sufficient
   instability for gradual thunderstorm intensification into this
   afternoon. Straight/elongating hodographs -- characterized by around
   30 kt of effective shear -- will support a few small/loosely
   organized storm clusters. 

   The primary concern with this activity will be locally damaging wind
   gusts of 45-60 mph (aided by the steepening deep-layer lapse rates),
   though marginally severe hail (to around 1 inch) will also be
   possible with any longer-lived cells. It is unclear if the overall
   severe risk will warrant a watch issuance, though trends are being
   monitored.

   ..Weinman/Hart.. 05/31/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...

   LAT...LON   37187567 36777573 36547611 36587659 36847709 37727737
               38767734 39367692 39757616 39817523 39687477 39367441
               38797465 37187567 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN