Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1053

   Mesoscale Discussion 1053
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0930 AM CDT Sat May 31 2025

   Areas affected...Parts of South Florida

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 311430Z - 311700Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...A couple strong to locally damaging wind gusts may
   accompany thunderstorms as they spread/develop east-southeastward
   across South FL through mid afternoon.

   DISCUSSION...Morning surface analysis shows an ENE/WSW-oriented cold
   front moving slowly southward toward Lake Okeechobee in South FL.
   Thunderstorms are ongoing along/north of the front, with additional
   development south of the front within broadly confluent (albeit
   veered) low-level flow. Despite poor midlevel lapse rates, diurnal
   heating of a moist air mass (beneath high-level clouds) is
   contributing to moderate surface-based instability ahead of storms.
   This, combined with around 35 kt of unidirectional 0-6 km shear,
   will favor a couple loosely organized thunderstorm clusters (both
   along and ahead of the front) -- capable of producing strong to
   locally damaging winds gusts. The overall severe threat is expected
   to remain too marginal/localized for a watch.

   ..Weinman/Hart.. 05/31/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...

   LAT...LON   26718208 27388087 27518051 27538032 27298011 26697995
               26068006 25938025 25908116 26088178 26548211 26718208 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH