Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1052

   Mesoscale Discussion 1052
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0737 PM CDT Fri May 30 2025

   Areas affected...Parts of central/eastern Maryland...southeast
   Pennsylvania...central/northern Delaware...southern/central New
   Jersey

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 350...

   Valid 310037Z - 310230Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 350 continues.

   SUMMARY...A risk for damaging winds and a couple tornadoes will
   persist near the warm front as the surface low tracks northeastward.

   DISCUSSION...Storms that had shown organization/low-level rotation
   near the DC/Baltimore region have shown a slight downward trend in
   organization during the last hour. This is likely due in part to
   scattered storms/precipitation occurring and impacting inflow
   quality. Even so, KDOX/KBWI/KPHL VAD data still show sufficient
   low-level hodographs for a continued tornado threat this evening.
   The primary zone for this activity will stay near the warm front and
   with the surface low tracking northeastward. Low-level winds in
   Delaware and southern New Jersey have already shown a backing trend
   as the low approaches. As has been the case throughout today,
   low/mid-level lapse rates have been poor and will remain so this
   evening (evident from the 00Z observed WAL sounding). The moist
   airmass, strong mid-level ascent, and enough low-level theta-e
   advection to offset diurnal cooling should allow for damaging wind
   and tornado risk over the next few hours. This will especially be
   the case where temperatures can remain in the low 70s F with mid 60s
   F dewpoints.

   ..Wendt.. 05/31/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...

   LAT...LON   38147626 38217654 38387657 38737660 38917668 39097674
               39347706 39457763 39597762 39777714 40177595 40287534
               40347489 40167458 39727453 38967539 38147626 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH