Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1049

   Mesoscale Discussion 1049
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0540 PM CDT Fri May 30 2025

   Areas affected...Northern Virginia...Washington DC...parts of
   central Maryland

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 350...

   Valid 302240Z - 310045Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 350 continues.

   SUMMARY...A local corridor of greater tornado threat is evident in
   the DC/Baltimore region over the next 1-3 hours.

   DISCUSSION...A narrow zone of favorably backed surface winds, south
   of a warm front near the PA/MD border, will be the most favorable
   corridor for tornadoes over the next 1-3 hours. Local VAD data from
   KLWX and nearby TDWRs show sufficient SRH for low-level mesocyclone
   development. A bookend vortex within a linear segment in northern
   Virginia will continue north-northeast into this favorable zone.
   Farther east, additional discrete storms will also have some
   potential to produce a tornado. The primary limiting factors will be
   modest buoyancy, weak mid-level lapse rates, and limited remaining
   time for surface heating.

   ..Wendt.. 05/30/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LWX...

   LAT...LON   38847850 39007821 39187785 39357727 39347659 39147634
               38797648 38477706 38367775 38337838 38847850 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN