Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1047

   Mesoscale Discussion 1047
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0332 PM CDT Fri May 30 2025

   Areas affected...Eastern Wisconsin

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 302032Z - 302200Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorm activity has begun to increase across
   portions of northeastern Wisconsin ahead of a southward-moving
   surface cold front. While no WW issuance is anticipated, storms
   could be capable of intermittent hail and damaging wind gusts.

   DISCUSSION...Storms have developed along and ahead of a southward
   moving cold front in northeastern Wisconsin, with some modest
   clearing out ahead of the storms and cooler temperatures aloft
   resulting in some modest 1000 J/kg MUCAPE. Deep layer shear
   exceeding 40 knots will support some convective organization, with
   relatively well-mixed/dry boundary layer profiles supporting
   damaging wind gusts with the strongest storms. With the freezing
   level being at approximately 700 mb, potential exists for hail up to
   1.00"-1.25" as well.

   ..Halbert.. 05/30/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...MKX...

   LAT...LON   43968875 44778873 45328859 45488807 45488769 45098736
               44398729 43638744 42868771 42648796 42758834 43118873
               43968875 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN