Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1045

   Mesoscale Discussion 1045
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0250 PM CDT Fri May 30 2025

   Areas affected...Far southeast Georgia...eastern South
   Carolina...and southeastern North Carolina

   Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely 

   Valid 301950Z - 302115Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...A severe thunderstorm watch will likely be needed within
   the next hour as a line of thunderstorms moves eastward out of the
   southern Appalachians towards the Atlantic coast. These storms will
   primarily be capable of damaging wind gusts, particularly where any
   convective clusters/bowing segments organize.

   DISCUSSION...A line of thunderstorms is moving eastward towards far
   eastern Georgia, eastern South Carolina, and southeastern Virginia.
   Ahead of the storms, daytime heating and boundary-layer mixing has
   destabilized the environment -- with 1500 J/kg MLCAPE and 40 kts of
   deep-layer shear -- which will support some organization into severe
   thunderstorm lines and clusters capable of damaging winds, and
   perhaps some hail. WW issuance will be needed within the next hour
   as convection exits WW 347.

   ..Halbert/Smith.. 05/30/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...FFC...

   LAT...LON   34098073 35147952 35427914 35497864 35277755 34977705
               34567713 34037761 33777792 32987905 32128019 31928077
               31988126 32258203 32698205 33218158 34098073 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN