Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1044

   Mesoscale Discussion 1044
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0249 PM CDT Fri May 30 2025

   Areas affected...Parts of eastern VA...MD...DE...northeastern
   NC...and far southeastern PA

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 301949Z - 302145Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...The risk of damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes will
   increase in the 22Z-00Z time frame. A watch will likely be issued
   for parts of the area within an hour or two.

   DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis shows a surface low over
   northern WV, with a quasi-warm front extending eastward across MD
   into southern NJ. Along/south of the front, diurnal heating within
   cloud breaks and lower/middle 60s dewpoints are contributing to
   around 1500 J/kg MLCAPE. As storms spread/develop eastward into the
   destabilizing air mass, 40-50 kt of effective shear should favor
   gradual intensification/organization into semi-discrete clusters and
   supercells. Enhanced clockwise hodograph curvature (around 150 m2/s2
   effective SRH) ahead of the east-northeastward-moving surface low
   will support the potential for a few tornadoes (along with locally
   damaging wind gusts) with the more organized supercells that evolve.
   A watch is likely for parts of the area within an hour or two.

   ..Weinman/Smith.. 05/30/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...MHX...CTP...LWX...RAH...RNK...

   LAT...LON   37337853 38497825 39377792 39847698 39917641 39747579
               39387537 38757517 37267557 36217624 35857708 35907796
               36167848 37337853 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN