Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1043

   Mesoscale Discussion 1043
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1206 PM CDT Fri May 30 2025

   Areas affected...Parts of eastern WV...western/central VA...and
   northern NC

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 301706Z - 301900Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...The severe risk will increase with eastward extent through
   mid/late afternoon. Damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes will be
   possible. A watch is likely for parts of the area, especially across
   Virginia into North Carolina.

   DISCUSSION...A mix of semi-discrete, marginal supercell structures
   and line segments are advancing eastward across far southwestern WV
   and far southwestern VA -- ahead of a surface low and cold front. In
   the near-term, this activity is in an environment characterized by
   weak buoyancy and strong/favorable low-level shear/SRH. As a result,
   these storms will pose some tornado risk, though the limited
   buoyancy casts uncertainty on the overall risk. Farther east,
   continued diurnal heating of upper 50s/lower 60s dewpoints will
   contribute to stronger buoyancy along/south of a quasi-warm front
   extending from the surface low eastward to the Mid-Atlantic. While
   low-level SRH may not be quite as high with eastward extent, 
   clockwise-curved hodographs and sufficient instability ahead of the
   surface low will support damaging winds and a few tornadoes -- given
   an expected cellular mode. A watch is likely for parts of the area,
   with less confidence in the overall risk with westward extent.

   ..Weinman/Smith.. 05/30/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...PBZ...RLX...

   LAT...LON   35917969 36108019 36358050 36788109 37098143 37548162
               38088151 38438098 38977969 39207910 39287873 39197821
               38887788 38417777 37787784 36617839 36177867 35877913
               35917969 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN