Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1042

   Mesoscale Discussion 1042
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1048 AM CDT Fri May 30 2025

   Areas affected...Parts of western/central NC...western/central
   SC...northern/central GA...and far east-central AL

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 301548Z - 301745Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Storms will increase in intensity and coverage as they
   spread eastward through this afternoon. The main concern will be
   swaths of damaging winds. One or more watches will be issued for the
   area.

   DISCUSSION...A band of ENE/WSW-oriented convection is spreading
   eastward across the southern Appalachians this morning -- ahead of
   an eastward-moving cold front. Over the next several hours,
   convection will continue spreading eastward across the
   western/central Carolinas and northern/central GA -- in tandem with
   the cold front and strong midlevel height falls preceding a
   large-scale trough. Ample diurnal heating of a moist pre-convective
   boundary layer (middle/upper 60s dewpoints) will contribute to
   upwards of 1500 J/kg MLCAPE, which combined with 40-50 kt of
   effective shear (sampled by earlier 12Z soundings), will favor storm
   intensification with eastward extent. Largely gust-front-parallel
   deep-layer shear and the strengthening deep-layer ascent should
   promote upscale-growing clusters capable of producing swaths of
   damaging winds (upwards of 70 mph). One or more watches will be
   issued for the area.

   ..Weinman/Smith.. 05/30/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...FFC...BMX...

   LAT...LON   35388207 35828154 35978093 35938019 35597953 35167929
               34327960 33698024 33078143 32448271 32248374 32048482
               32328537 32898561 33558541 33938476 35388207 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN