Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1040

   Mesoscale Discussion 1040
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0310 AM CDT Fri May 30 2025

   Areas affected...Southern Kentucky...Middle Tennessee and eastern
   Tennessee

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 300810Z - 301015Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated large hail and damaging wind gusts are possible
   early this morning across portions of southern Kentucky, Middle
   Tennessee, and eastern Tennessee.

   DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have started to develop within a zone of
   modest instability across southern Kentucky and Middle Tennessee
   ahead of an approaching mid-level shortwave trough. Temperatures are
   only in the mid 60s to near 70, but cooling mid-level temperatures
   (-11C at 00Z from BNA forecast to cool to -13.6C by 12Z) will result
   in weak to moderate instability through the early morning hours.
   Strengthening tropospheric flow ahead of this trough will provide
   ample shear for storm organization including potential for some
   supercells. The VWP at KHPX shows greater than 40 knots of flow now
   below 1km which will enhance the potential for damaging wind gusts
   at the surface with stronger storms. 

   The SPC mesoanalysis shows an uncapped airmass across Tennessee and
   southern Kentucky. Therefore, if any supercells can develop along
   the front where SRH is maximized (~300 m2/s2 0-0.5km SRH from KHPX
   VWP), a local tornado threat could be realized. However, weak
   low-level lapse rates will also be a limiting factor to the tornado
   threat. 

   A severe thunderstorm watch is not expected in the near term.
   However, given the strength of the compact mid-level shortwave
   trough and ascent associated with it, it is possible the severe
   weather threat could be more widespread/intense than anticipated.
   While this is not the most likely solution, trends will be monitored
   for this potential through the morning.

   ..Bentley/Bunting.. 05/30/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG...

   LAT...LON   36638825 37128765 37278498 37168340 36318314 35358435
               35088562 35128691 35198744 35468801 36638825 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN