Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1039

   Mesoscale Discussion 1039
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0642 PM CDT Thu May 29 2025

   Areas affected...Southern High Plains

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 346...

   Valid 292342Z - 300115Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 346
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Scattered severe thunderstorms will continue this evening.

   DISCUSSION...A reservoir of strong instability currently resides
   across west central TX where upwards of 3000 J/kg MLCAPE exists.
   Over the last few hours, scattered convection has gradually
   increased in areal coverage within convergent low-level
   northeasterly flow, over southeast NM into portions of the TX South
   Plains, along and just behind a pronounced cold front. This activity
   appears to be partly supported by a weak mid-level short-wave trough
   that will track east-southeast later this evening. While low-level
   response is not particularly strong ahead of this feature, ongoing
   convection should propagate east into the aforementioned
   high-instability air mass. Current thinking is robust thunderstorms
   may spread just east of ww0346, and an eastward extension appears
   warranted across SJT CWA. Very large hail has been noted with a
   supercell that is digging southeast across Dawson County TX, and
   this appears to be the primary threat into the mid-evening hours.

   ..Darrow.. 05/29/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...MAF...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   33710450 33540005 30940006 31110450 33710450 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.75-4.25 IN