Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1038

   Mesoscale Discussion 1038
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0306 PM CDT Thu May 29 2025

   Areas affected...southeast New Mexico into West Texas and parts of
   the Texas Big Country

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 292006Z - 292130Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...The severe weather threat will increase across southeast
   New Mexico and West Texas later this afternoon.

   DISCUSSION...Moderate instability has developed across West Texas
   and into far southeastern New Mexico this afternoon. Additional
   heating and destabilization, combined with increasing ascent ahead
   of a southeastward moving shortwave trough, should be sufficient for
   storm development later this afternoon along and south of the front
   moving south across West Texas. Storms will initially be
   supercellular given 45-50 knots of effective shear (per SPC
   mesoanalysis). The primary hazard initially will be large hail, with
   the potential for hail in excess of 3 inches. Some tornado and
   severe wind threat will also exist during the supercell storm mode.
   Through time, these supercells may congeal into a southeastward
   moving MCS. In addition, the mass of convection across southeast New
   Mexico and vicinity may eventually develop a strong enough cold pool
   to support a forward propagating MCS as it moves southeast into the
   greater instability. As these MCSs combine, the severe wind threat
   will increase, particularly as storms move into the Texas Big
   Country/Concho Valley later this evening.

   ..Bentley/Smith.. 05/29/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FWD...SJT...LUB...MAF...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   33740393 33690201 33380046 33109937 32859897 31819910
               30989950 30850031 31680281 32060373 32410415 33740393 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...75-90 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.75-4.25 IN