Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1036

   Mesoscale Discussion 1036
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1147 AM CDT Thu May 29 2025

   Areas affected...Portions of southeastern Georgia and eastern South
   Carolina

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 291647Z - 291815Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Storm coverage expected to increase over the next few
   hours, posing a threat for damaging wind gusts and some severe hail.
   Watch issuance is expected by early to mid afternoon.

   DISCUSSION...Regional radar shows a broad area of stratiform rain
   with a few more intense cells embedded, advancing northeastward
   across portions of central Georgia. Ahead of this activity, morning
   clearing has allowed for rapid destabilization, yielding 1500-2000
   J/kg of MLCAPE across southeast Georgia and eastern South Carolina.
   The lack of appreciable CIN is leading to a steady increase in new
   storm development across the region, in addition to the
   aforementioned ongoing activity. Effective bulk shear of 30-35 kt
   should promote a few loosely organized clusters with time, with
   damaging wind gusts being the primary threat. Severe hail is also
   possible, particularly with any isolated cells early on. Given the
   widespread storm coverage anticipated and severe storm potential, a
   watch will likely be needed by early to mid afternoon.

   ..Karstens/Smith.. 05/29/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC...TAE...

   LAT...LON   30608147 30748295 31328362 33068248 33808089 33447906
               32617955 31538108 30608147 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN