Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1031

   Mesoscale Discussion 1031
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0704 PM CDT Wed May 28 2025

   Areas affected...northwest OK and the northeast TX Panhandle

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 345...

   Valid 290004Z - 290130Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 345
   continues.

   SUMMARY...An increasing severe threat is expected downstream of an
   accelerating cluster from the eastern Oklahoma Panhandle. Severe
   gusts, large hail, and a brief tornado are all possible.

   DISCUSSION...An intense, nearly-stationary supercell has been
   anchored over Beaver County, OK. It is in the process of being
   merged with an upstream cluster. Primary severe threat through
   mid-evening is expected downstream of this merging complex, aided by
   a ribbon of higher theta-e coinciding with a strengthening low-level
   jet, already sampled by area VWP data. Severe wind-driven large hail
   appears increasingly likely into northwest OK as this leading
   cluster moves east-southeast. A brief tornado is possible given
   enlarged low-level hodograph curvature, but may be curtailed by the
   outflow-dominated cluster.

   ..Grams/Hart.. 05/29/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...AMA...

   LAT...LON   37080031 37029941 36659835 36129790 35759843 35799924
               35889995 36090063 36380085 36700099 37080031 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN