Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1023

   Mesoscale Discussion 1023
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1253 PM CDT Wed May 28 2025

   Areas affected...Central High Plains into Western Kansas...the
   Oklahoma Panhandle...and portions of the northern Texas Panhandle

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 281753Z - 282030Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms are expected to develop across much
   of eastern Colorado and move east-southeastward into portions of the
   Central and Southern Plains. Supercells capable of all hazards,
   including tornadoes, will be possible. Watch issuance will likely be
   needed later this afternoon.

   DISCUSSION...Recent satellite trends show deepening cumulus over the
   higher terrain of Colorado, which will eventually develop into
   thunderstorms with continued boundary-layer mixing. Strong
   surface-based buoyancy with 30-40 kts of deep-layer effective bulk
   shear will support maturation into supercells and bowing convective
   segments capable of large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps
   tornadoes. The tornado potential will be greatest this evening
   across portions of far eastern Colorado into western Kansas and
   portions of the Oklahoma Panhandle, where local enhancements from
   the nocturnal low-level jet will increase available environmental
   streamwise vorticity.

   ..Halbert/Guyer.. 05/28/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LBF...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   35810450 36200496 36770476 37220471 37820470 38670477
               39760484 40510479 40620466 40750406 40730298 40450194
               40060128 38920071 38170069 37470086 36670114 36070188
               35880254 35670385 35770430 35810450 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN