Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1022

   Mesoscale Discussion 1022
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1220 PM CDT Wed May 28 2025

   Areas affected...parts of central/northwest Texas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 281720Z - 281915Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated to scattered severe storms are possible this
   afternoon and into the evening.

   DISCUSSION...Weak showers/thunderstorms have developed in Brown
   County this morning. However, it appears instability is too weak to
   support stronger convection at this time. As temperatures continue
   to warm into the low 80s this afternoon, stronger instability is
   anticipated which should eventually result in more robust
   development from this activity. Easterly low-level flow combined
   with moderate mid-level flow aloft will result in shear supportive
   of supercells. Slow storm motions (10 to 15 knots) will result in
   slow-moving supercells with a primary large hail threat through the
   afternoon. 

   Additional supercell development is also possible near the MCV
   across northwest Texas later this afternoon. Currently SPC
   mesoanalysis indicates a capped environment near the MCV, but as the
   boundary layer continues to warm/destabilize, expect a few
   supercells to develop. 

   12Z CAM guidance only shows a few storms within this region this
   afternoon. This casts some doubt on watch necessity in an otherwise
   favorable environment. Therefore, trends will be monitored and if
   more than an isolated threat appears likely, a watch will likely be
   necessary. In addition, if more widespread storms develop, some
   threat for upscale growth and an increasing wind threat could
   persist into the evening into parts of central Texas.

   ..Bentley/Guyer.. 05/28/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF...

   LAT...LON   30409900 30619942 31249999 32260075 33140089 33380016
               33109905 32539814 32329784 30999742 30249839 30409900 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN