Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1017

   Mesoscale Discussion 1017
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0921 PM CDT Tue May 27 2025

   Areas affected...south AL

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 339...

   Valid 280221Z - 280315Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 339
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Overall severe threat should be rather limited within WW
   339 through the rest of the evening. Localized strong gusts and a
   brief tornado are possible downstream in south AL.

   DISCUSSION...The northern portion of a short QLCS over southwest AL
   has accelerated and displayed broad rotation as a bookend vortex
   emerged. Although instability is muted in the wake of an earlier-day
   MCS and poor mid-level lapse rates, low LCLs along with adequate
   surface-based buoyancy could support a brief tornado and swath of
   strong gusts as the bookend moves east where low-level shear is
   greater per MXX VWP data.

   The trailing portion of the line continues to struggle in
   maintaining deeper and more organized convective structures with
   outpacing outflow noted in MOB radar. With a lack of low-level mass
   response along the central Gulf Coast, this trend is expected to
   persist through the rest of the evening.

   ..Grams/Mosier.. 05/28/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...

   LAT...LON   31968714 32168702 32368643 32438593 32218554 31968549
               31808558 31638600 31568646 31538681 31588710 31968714 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH