Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1015

   Mesoscale Discussion 1015
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0735 PM CDT Tue May 27 2025

   Areas affected...southwest AL...far southeast MS...far western FL
   Panhandle

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 339...

   Valid 280035Z - 280200Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 339
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Isolated damaging winds and marginally severe hail remain
   possible with a short linear cluster moving southeast towards a
   portion of the central Gulf Coast through late evening.

   DISCUSSION...Despite convection consolidating into a short-line
   segment across the southeast MS-southwest AL border area, storm
   intensity has likely remained sub-severe over the past hour. Poor
   mid-level lapse rates, 4.5-5.0 C/km from 700-500 mb, sampled
   upstream by the 00Z JAN/LIX soundings are impacting updraft strength
   despite the presence of mean-mixing ratios around 16 g/kg near the
   coast. Potential still exists for this segment to intensify as it
   likely tracks more southeastward, with renewed updrafts possible
   along the southwestern flank of the convective outflow which would
   pose a risk for marginally severe hail.

   ..Grams/Mosier.. 05/28/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MOB...LIX...

   LAT...LON   31878799 31898771 31798722 31568693 31238675 30738685
               30448732 30278882 30728919 31368861 31878799 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN