Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1013

   Mesoscale Discussion 1013
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0537 PM CDT Tue May 27 2025

   Areas affected...eastern Colorado

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 272237Z - 272330Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Marginal risk for hail and gusty winds with thunderstorms
   moving out of the high terrain this evening.

   DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm activity has been ongoing across the Front
   Range this afternoon, with occasional stronger cores evident on
   radar. Activity should move out of the high terrain across eastern
   Colorado this evening. Forecast soundings are characterized by steep
   lapse rates, modest deep layer shear, and sufficient instability to
   promote some instances of severe hail and gusty winds. Guidance also
   suggests some potential for clustering and attempts at upscale
   growth, which would increase wind potential. Trends will be
   monitored this evening across this region for watch potential, but
   confidence in convective evolution is low at this time.

   ..Thornton/Mosier.. 05/27/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU...

   LAT...LON   39420537 40030553 40270536 40660467 40750406 40340338
               39530267 38580207 37450207 37040243 37000375 37410425
               39420537 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN