Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1009

   Mesoscale Discussion 1009
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0224 PM CDT Tue May 27 2025

   Areas affected...portions of Southwest TX...far southeastern New
   Mexico and the Rio Grande Valley

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 271924Z - 272130Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will continue to increase in coverage across
   Southwest TX and far southeastern NM with a risk primarily for large
   hail and damaging gusts.

   DISCUSSION...With strong diurnal heating ongoing, isolated
   convection has developed over the higher terrain of the Davis
   Mountains and and the western Rim of the Rio Grande Valley.
   Additional convection is likely to develop this afternoon as
   convective temperatures are breached and with continued low-level
   upslope flow in the wake of overnight outflow. Continued
   destabilization will result in moderate to large buoyancy with
   1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE and steep mid-level lapse rate. While
   westerly flow aloft will be overly strong, 30-40 kt of effective
   shear will be sufficient for supercells.

   Supercells will pose a risk for large to very large hail given the
   favorable storm mode and steep mid-level lapse rates. While
   low-level shear is weak, a tornado or two also cannot be ruled out
   with the stronger supercells. With time, some clustering, and
   moderately deep inverted-v thermodynamic profiles will support a
   risk for damaging outflow gusts. This appears especially likely with
   any stronger clusters that can develop and cross the Rio Grande
   later this afternoon/evening.

   It will likely take several hours for storms to mature and move off
   the higher terrain given relatively modest forcing for ascent. While
   the general severe risk should continue to increase, there remains
   some uncertainty on the timing of any potential watch. Conditions
   will continue to be monitored.

   ..Lyons/Guyer.. 05/27/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...

   LAT...LON   29100420 29880445 30930483 32160557 32750550 33030483
               33120377 32380253 31550132 31020073 29800039 29420099
               29430188 29650248 28860304 29100420 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN