Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1008

   Mesoscale Discussion 1008
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1208 PM CDT Tue May 27 2025

   Areas affected...eastern Alabama...the western Florida
   Panhandle...western and central Georgia

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 271708Z - 271845Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...A line of storms in Alabama has started to strengthen. A
   severe thunderstorm watch may be needed this afternoon.

   DISCUSSION...Low to mid 70s dewpoints have become well established
   east of an ongoing line of storms in Alabama. Within this region,
   abundant sunshine has permitted heating into the low 80s across
   central Alabama to the upper 80s along the Gulf Coast. This has
   resulted in moderate destabilization by mid-day. SPC mesoanalysis
   indicates an uncapped environment ahead of this line with recent
   lightning trends indicating a strengthening of convection within the
   past 30 minutes. 

   Shear is relatively weak across the region, indicated by lack of
   upper-level cloudcover across Alabama and Georgia ahead of this
   mornings convection. However, a well-established cold pool/MCV will
   likely be sufficient to maintain some severe weather threat through
   the afternoon. In addition, slightly stronger mid-level flow (~35
   knots) is apparent from the KHDC VWP, indicating that some stronger
   mid-level flow may overspread the warm sector through the afternoon
   and support greater storm organization. 

   Overall, the warm/moist profile and weak lapse rates should limit
   the hail threat with water-loaded downdrafts and a damaging wind
   threat as the primary threat. The greatest threat will be with any
   embedded bowing segments which could develop along the line. 

   Cold air damming across northern Georgia will likely represent the
   northernmost extent of the severe weather threat with strengthening
   high pressure likely maintaining the relative location of this
   colder air through the day. Some damaging wind threat could persist
   for a few counties into the colder air, but as the colder air
   deepens with northward extent, the threat for surface-based damaging
   wind gusts should dissipate.

   ..Bentley/Guyer.. 05/27/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...

   LAT...LON   33608639 33878492 33738390 33258243 32748231 32188249
               31818303 30868432 30358617 30688789 31278804 32638681
               33608639 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN