Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1007

   Mesoscale Discussion 1007
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0855 AM CDT Tue May 27 2025

   Areas affected...southeastern Louisiana...southeastern
   Mississippi...southern Alabama...and the western Florida Panhandle

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 271355Z - 271530Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...An increasingly unstable airmass is developing ahead of
   ongoing storms. A downstream watch may be needed.

   DISCUSSION...An ongoing cluster/line of storms moving across
   southern Mississippi and southeastern Louisiana has had occasional
   reports of wind damage. Ahead of this line, a very moist airmass is
   in place with low to mid 70s dewpoints. In addition, mostly clear
   skies are present which has allowed for temperatures to warm into
   the low 80s. Additional heating is anticipated with MLCAPE around
   2000 J/kg expected. Mid-level flow around 30 to 35 knots (sampled by
   HDC VWP) should provide ample shear for maintenance of the ongoing
   cluster. Damaging wind gusts will be the primary threat from this
   activity through the late morning and into the afternoon. 

   A downstream severe thunderstorm watch may be needed to address this
   threat.

   ..Bentley/Guyer.. 05/27/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...

   LAT...LON   30919014 31598979 32558862 32968793 33308693 33088596
               32538551 31368523 30478587 30308669 30228762 30198834
               30028875 29498895 29028900 28938975 28979075 29159117
               30279076 30919014 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN