Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1005

   Mesoscale Discussion 1005
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0334 AM CDT Tue May 27 2025

   Areas affected...southern/central LA

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 270834Z - 271000Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated strong gusts may persist across parts of central
   and southern Louisiana the next couple of hours.

   DISCUSSION...An eastward-progressing line of strong storms is
   tracking along/north of the marine front oriented west to east along
   the LA coast and within the MLCAPE gradient. Vertical shear is
   adequate to maintain storm organization, through does weaken with
   eastward extent. This activity has mostly remained sub-severe over
   the last 1-2 hours, though a 53 kt gust wast noted at KLCH. Storms
   are expected to gradually weaken with eastward extent, though
   isolated strong gusts remain possible. 

   Some stronger rotation has recently been noted on the KLCH radar
   associated with a couple of mesovortices along the leading edge of
   the line across far southern LA where activity is likely closer to
   being surface-based. Strong gusts may be more likely across this
   area in the short term. 

   Overall, severe potential is expected to remain limited and
   gradually diminish with time and eastward extent.

   ..Leitman/Gleason.. 05/27/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...

   LAT...LON   31639322 31549212 31079177 29849130 29289137 29279238
               29549318 29939347 30689364 31209366 31639322 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN