Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1004

   Mesoscale Discussion 1004
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1120 PM CDT Mon May 26 2025

   Areas affected...south TX

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 335...

   Valid 270420Z - 270545Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 335
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Uncertainty exists over the longevity and potential
   evolution of ongoing strong to severe storms in south Texas,
   especially to the south of WW 335 overnight.

   DISCUSSION...Deep convective cores have largely been relegated along
   and north of the southward-sagging outflow boundary associated with
   the extensive MCS arcing across east to south TX. Large buoyancy and
   a 45-50 kt low-level jet per CRP VWP data are positives to
   maintaining a potential severe threat overnight across parts of the
   Brush Country. But the west/east-orientation of the convective
   cluster along with stout MLCIN with southern extent into the Lower
   Rio Grande Valley casts considerable uncertainty on cold pool
   acceleration. It is possible that convection may remain strong to
   locally severe as it ripples south along the sagging large-scale
   outflow.

   ..Grams/Mosier.. 05/27/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...

   LAT...LON   29069855 28579821 28249786 28069758 27729764 27549786
               27669866 27999942 28580008 28989982 29069855 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN