Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1002

   Mesoscale Discussion 1002
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1006 PM CDT Mon May 26 2025

   Areas affected...west-central OK

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 270306Z - 270430Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...A pair of well-established supercells may continue to pose
   a large hail threat across west-central Oklahoma through about
   midnight, before likely subsiding overnight.

   DISCUSSION...A long-lived supercell that started producing
   significant severe hail over Roger Mills County has now moved into
   Custer County, with a separate strong supercell over Dewey County.
   This activity has seemingly overachieved relative to the anticipated
   environment to the south of an MCV now in southern KS. Given how
   well-established this pair of supercells has become, the moist
   low-levels sampled in the 00Z OUN sounding suggest that MLCIN will
   remain slow to increase. But decreasing MLCAPE within the weak
   buoyancy range (below 1000 J/kg) and lack of appreciable low-level
   ascent do suggest that the large hail threat should subside
   overnight.

   ..Grams/Mosier.. 05/27/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OUN...

   LAT...LON   36019886 35839813 35519784 34979797 34789838 34829867
               34979905 35309938 35589947 36019886 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN