Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 996

   Mesoscale Discussion 0996
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0532 PM CDT Mon May 26 2025

   Areas affected...south-central TX

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 331...

   Valid 262232Z - 270030Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 331 continues.

   SUMMARY...Significant severe hail/wind and tornadoes will remain
   possible through mid-evening across the eastern Edwards Plateau and
   Hill Country vicinity with an emerging MCS.

   DISCUSSION...Intense supercells have produced at least a couple
   reported tornadoes, extremely large hail in excess of 5 inches, and
   measured severe wind gusts to 73 mph. The latter occurred at the
   Menard WTM site as surface temperatures fell into the upper 50s
   within a strengthening cold pool. An intense leading supercell is
   ongoing over Mason County and will have the best opportunity to
   produce tornadoes in the next hour or so. Additional convection
   appears to be developing immediately eastward, suggestive of the
   well-advertised upscale growth into an MCS this evening along the
   large-scale convective outflow arcing to Matagorda Bay. This MCS
   should initially remain slow-moving before potentially accelerating
   later this evening. Overall hail magnitudes have likely peaked, but
   any semi-discrete updrafts will remain capable of significant severe
   hail. The significant severe wind threat is likely to increase,
   especially as embedded supercells evolve into small-scale bows.

   ..Grams.. 05/26/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...

   LAT...LON   30869924 30909881 30839823 30759796 30439752 29919769
               29729797 29669832 29699905 29749970 29870021 30110049
               30370054 30580000 30869924 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...75-90 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN