Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 990

   Mesoscale Discussion 0990
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0140 PM CDT Mon May 26 2025

   Areas affected...portions of north-central Texas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 261840Z - 261945Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Elevated supercells may pose some hail risk along I-20 and
   into the DFW Metroplex early this afternoon. A more widespread
   severe risk is expected farther south later this afternoon/evening.

   DISCUSSION...As of 1830 UTC, regional radar imagery showed new
   thunderstorm development had occurred across the I-20 corridor west
   of DFW. These storms are likely rooted above the surface, developing
   atop a stable surface air mass in the wake of an early morning MCS.
   While some diurnal heating is occurring, it is likely these storms
   will remain elevated as the move northeastward atop the old surface
   cold pool. MUCAPE parcels between 700 and 800 MB are supporting
   1000-1500 J/kg of elevated buoyancy with 35-40 kt of effective shear
   sufficient for supercells. While not expected to be overly intense,
   the buoyancy/shear profiles and supercell mode are favorable for
   severe hail across north-central TX early this afternoon. The lack
   of deeper buoyancy, especially with northeastward extent, suggests
   the severe threat should remain fairly isolated initially.

   A greater severe risk is likely to evolve along and south of I-20
   with stronger convection emanating from central TX later this
   afternoon and evening.

   ..Lyons/Guyer.. 05/26/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FWD...SJT...

   LAT...LON   33199692 32909633 32419610 32259609 31509662 31469667
               31399748 31609835 32109914 32529911 32999844 33199692 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN