Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 989

   Mesoscale Discussion 0989
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1247 PM CDT Mon May 26 2025

   Areas affected...west-central and south-central MS

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 330...

   Valid 261747Z - 261945Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 330
   continues.

   SUMMARY...The greatest risk for strong/locally severe damaging gusts
   (50-65 mph) appears focused from near I-20 southward into southern
   MS through 3pm CDT (20 UTC).

   DISCUSSION...Surface observations during the 15-17 UTC timeframe
   have shown temperatures warming from the the lower-mid 70s deg F to
   the mid 70s to lower 80s from south to north.  Coincidentally, the
   cumulus field is slowly moving northward over southern MS and
   generally corresponds to the delineation of moderate instability
   south of the cumulus fine-line.  Continued warming due in part to
   scattered to broken cloud cover will further steepen 0-2 km lapse
   rates.  Despite modest to moderate 850-300 mb mean flow, an
   attendant MCV located near the ArkLaMiss will aid in squall line
   maintenance through the afternoon.  The 18 UTC Slidell, Louisiana
   raob showed a lowest 100-mb mean mixing ratio of 16.6 g/kg. 
   Water-loaded downdrafts and surges in the squall line will act to
   facilitate stronger gusts to the surface as the squall line moves
   east this afternoon across Severe Thunderstorm Watch #330.

   ..Smith.. 05/26/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...

   LAT...LON   32339111 32539090 32548952 32418943 31428956 31168983
               31159129 31309141 32339111 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH