Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 982

   Mesoscale Discussion 0982
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0925 PM CDT Sun May 25 2025

   Areas affected...north-central Texas and southern Oklahoma

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 260225Z - 260430Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Severe wind threat to continue downstream of WW325 and
   WW327.

   DISCUSSION...Several clusters of thunderstorms are ongoing across
   portions of north-central Texas into western and central Oklahoma as
   of 02z. Potential upscale growth to an MCS feature has been progged
   in guidance, but the exact details remain unclear. Nonetheless,
   radar and satellite presentation would suggest over the last couple
   of hours that storms may merge into a line with embedded bowing
   segments and advance eastward across southern Oklahoma and
   north-central Texas through the evening/overnight. 

   Convection on the southern end of these clusters have produced gusts
   up to 80 mph. The cluster across southwestern Oklahoma has also
   shown better forward propagation and wind signal on radar over the
   last 30-45 minutes. The environment downstream continues to be very
   moist and unstable. In addition, a strengthening of the low-level
   jet is expected to continue over the next several hours.

   It is likely that the severe threat will extend downstream of WW325
   and WW327 and a new Severe Thunderstorm Watch will likely be needed
   to cover this threat.

   ..Thornton/Mosier.. 05/26/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...

   LAT...LON   32379940 33229887 34689737 34799642 34529581 33839591
               32839593 31689813 31999913 32379940 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN