Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 972

   Mesoscale Discussion 0972
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0333 PM CDT Sun May 25 2025

   Areas affected...much of Arkansas into southern Tennessee and
   northern Mississippi

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 322...

   Valid 252033Z - 252200Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 322
   continues.

   SUMMARY...The severe risk continues across much of WW322. Damaging
   winds remain the primary threat though some hail with more scattered
   convection is also possible.

   DISCUSSION...As of 2030 UTC, regional radar imagery showed gradual
   intensification of the ongoing convective cluster across
   northwestern portions of WW322. Continued upscale growth of this
   cluster is likely this afternoon/evening as the expanding cold pool
   continues to interact with a broad warm and unstable air mass south
   of the East-West stationary front. The expectation continues to be
   for one or more bowing clusters to emerge from this convection, and
   spread eastward with a risk for damaging winds and perhaps an
   embedded tornado or two.

   Additional, more scattered, convection has also developed across
   much of the warm sector this afternoon. Given the robust buoyancy
   (3,000 J/kg of MLCAPE), some hail and occasional damaging winds are
   also possible with these storms. However, the main risk is still
   expected to be the broader complex over AR/TN maturing later into
   the evening. Given the gradual intensification/organization, the
   severe threat will continue to increase across much of WW322.

   ..Lyons.. 05/25/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...

   LAT...LON   34639432 35539081 35318825 33428831 32938867 33029373
               33349406 34639432 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN