Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 972
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Mesoscale Discussion 972 | |
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Mesoscale Discussion 0972 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0333 PM CDT Sun May 25 2025 Areas affected...much of Arkansas into southern Tennessee and northern Mississippi Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 322... Valid 252033Z - 252200Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 322 continues. SUMMARY...The severe risk continues across much of WW322. Damaging winds remain the primary threat though some hail with more scattered convection is also possible. DISCUSSION...As of 2030 UTC, regional radar imagery showed gradual intensification of the ongoing convective cluster across northwestern portions of WW322. Continued upscale growth of this cluster is likely this afternoon/evening as the expanding cold pool continues to interact with a broad warm and unstable air mass south of the East-West stationary front. The expectation continues to be for one or more bowing clusters to emerge from this convection, and spread eastward with a risk for damaging winds and perhaps an embedded tornado or two. Additional, more scattered, convection has also developed across much of the warm sector this afternoon. Given the robust buoyancy (3,000 J/kg of MLCAPE), some hail and occasional damaging winds are also possible with these storms. However, the main risk is still expected to be the broader complex over AR/TN maturing later into the evening. Given the gradual intensification/organization, the severe threat will continue to increase across much of WW322. ..Lyons.. 05/25/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV... LAT...LON 34639432 35539081 35318825 33428831 32938867 33029373 33349406 34639432 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN |
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2025-05-25 21:16:08