Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 971

   Mesoscale Discussion 0971
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0224 PM CDT Sun May 25 2025

   Areas affected...northeast NM

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 251924Z - 252130Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Storm development will initially focus near the higher
   terrain before moving east atop the escarpment/plains.  Large
   hail/severe gusts are possible.

   DISCUSSION...Visible-satellite imagery shows towering cumulus over
   the Sangre de Cristos and a swelling cumulus field along the I-25
   corridor in a post-frontal regime.  Surface analysis indicates
   temperatures have warmed into the mid 60s to lower 70s deg F with
   upper 40s to lower 50s dewpoints.  Short-term model forecast
   soundings and RAP-based Objective Analysis imply 750-1500 J/kg
   MLCAPE across northeast NM.  A belt of 35-40 kt southwesterly 500-mb
   flow will support storm organization as storms develop/mature into
   slightly richer moisture with eastward movement later this
   afternoon.  A few of the stronger storms may attain supercellular
   characteristics and pose a risk for large hail.  Severe gusts could
   become more prevalent if/once storms cluster and congeal east of
   I-25 during the early evening before low-level lapse rates lessen
   with the loss of heating.

   ..Smith/Guyer.. 05/25/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   35460543 36610471 36790446 36720404 36410383 35130441
               34890486 35050533 35460543 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN