Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 971
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Mesoscale Discussion 971 | |
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Mesoscale Discussion 0971 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Sun May 25 2025 Areas affected...northeast NM Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 251924Z - 252130Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Storm development will initially focus near the higher terrain before moving east atop the escarpment/plains. Large hail/severe gusts are possible. DISCUSSION...Visible-satellite imagery shows towering cumulus over the Sangre de Cristos and a swelling cumulus field along the I-25 corridor in a post-frontal regime. Surface analysis indicates temperatures have warmed into the mid 60s to lower 70s deg F with upper 40s to lower 50s dewpoints. Short-term model forecast soundings and RAP-based Objective Analysis imply 750-1500 J/kg MLCAPE across northeast NM. A belt of 35-40 kt southwesterly 500-mb flow will support storm organization as storms develop/mature into slightly richer moisture with eastward movement later this afternoon. A few of the stronger storms may attain supercellular characteristics and pose a risk for large hail. Severe gusts could become more prevalent if/once storms cluster and congeal east of I-25 during the early evening before low-level lapse rates lessen with the loss of heating. ..Smith/Guyer.. 05/25/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ABQ... LAT...LON 35460543 36610471 36790446 36720404 36410383 35130441 34890486 35050533 35460543 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN |
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2025-05-25 20:51:03