Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 970
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Mesoscale Discussion 970 | |
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Mesoscale Discussion 0970 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0215 PM CDT Sun May 25 2025 Areas affected...Atlantic Coast portions of SC and GA into the FL Panhandle. Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 251915Z - 252115Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms along multiple sea-breeze boundaries will support a risk for occasional damaging gusts or sporadic hail this afternoon. A WW is not expected. DISCUSSION...As of 1915 UTC, regional radar and satellite showed scattered to numerous thunderstorms erupting along the Atlantic Coasts of GA and SC, extending southward across much of the FL Peninsula. Driven largely by diurnal heating and localized confluence along typical sea-breeze boundaries, a few stronger multicells/clusters have been noted recently. With little in the way of upper-level forcing for ascent, convection has been largely unorganized and is expected to remain as such. However, additional clustering may support stronger cold pool development with time. This could allow for occasional damaging gusts and wet microbursts given the high PWATs (~1.8-2 inches) air mass. Sporadic hail is also possible with the more intense updrafts given around 2000 J/kg of MLCAPE. While occasional damaging gusts and hail are possible, the lack of broader upper-level support suggests the severe risk will be transient/isolated. A WW is not expected this afternoon. ..Lyons/Guyer.. 05/25/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CHS...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX... LAT...LON 26198008 26448128 27698224 29998239 31268225 32178190 32308123 32148085 31538121 30648140 29188098 27358026 26198008 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN |
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2025-05-25 20:15:04