Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 970

   Mesoscale Discussion 0970
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0215 PM CDT Sun May 25 2025

   Areas affected...Atlantic Coast portions of SC and GA into the FL
   Panhandle.

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 251915Z - 252115Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms along multiple sea-breeze
   boundaries will support a risk for occasional damaging gusts or
   sporadic hail this afternoon. A WW is not expected.

   DISCUSSION...As of 1915 UTC, regional radar and satellite showed
   scattered to numerous thunderstorms erupting along the Atlantic
   Coasts of GA and SC, extending southward across much of the FL
   Peninsula. Driven largely by diurnal heating and localized
   confluence along typical sea-breeze boundaries, a few stronger
   multicells/clusters have been noted recently. With little in the way
   of upper-level forcing for ascent, convection has been largely
   unorganized and is expected to remain as such. However, additional
   clustering may support stronger cold pool development with time.
   This could allow for occasional damaging gusts and wet microbursts
   given the high PWATs (~1.8-2 inches) air mass. Sporadic hail is also
   possible with the more intense updrafts given around 2000 J/kg of
   MLCAPE. While occasional damaging gusts and hail are possible, the
   lack of broader upper-level support suggests the severe risk will be
   transient/isolated. A WW is not expected this afternoon.

   ..Lyons/Guyer.. 05/25/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...CHS...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX...

   LAT...LON   26198008 26448128 27698224 29998239 31268225 32178190
               32308123 32148085 31538121 30648140 29188098 27358026
               26198008 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN