Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 969

   Mesoscale Discussion 0969
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0150 PM CDT Sun May 25 2025

   Areas affected...middle and eastern Tennessee

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 251850Z - 252015Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Some diurnal heating ahead of a cluster of storms may
   support a gradual increase in the severe risk this afternoon.
   Conditions are being monitored for a possible WW.

   DISCUSSION...Along the northern portions of the stalled front across
   the TN Valley a remnant linear cluster of thunderstorms has shown
   some re-intensification early this afternoon. Visible imagery shows
   some diurnal heating has raised surface temperatures to the
   mid/upper 70s ahead of the line, partially modifying the air mass
   along the baroclinic zone. While buoyancy is not overly large.
   MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg, a fairly robust surface cold pool and 30-40
   kt of mid-level flow may allow for additional storm
   intensification/organization for a few hours this afternoon.
   Damaging winds are the primary concern, as indicated by a few recent
   reports of damage and gusts to 50+ mph). However, an embedded
   tornado or two are is also possible, given backed low-level flow
   along the front. The primary uncertainty remains to degree of
   destabilization ahead of the line, especially into eastern TN where
   surface temperatures and buoyancy are weaker. Regardless, some
   severe risk may evolve this afternoon, and a WW is being considered.

   ..Lyons/Guyer.. 05/25/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...HUN...MEG...

   LAT...LON   34928616 35018797 35458860 36498796 36598790 36018527
               35388412 34898467 34928616 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN