Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 968

   Mesoscale Discussion 0968
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0138 PM CDT Sun May 25 2025

   Areas affected...west-central into south-central Oklahoma

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 251838Z - 252015Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated to scattered storm development is possible this
   afternoon with an attendant severe risk.  Convective trends will be
   monitored for a possible Watch.

   DISCUSSION...Visible-satellite imagery trends during the past hour
   have shown a swelling cumulus field in the vicinity of a wind shift
   and frontal zone draped generally west to east across south-central
   and central OK.  A very moist and destabilizing airmass is over
   south-central OK where surface dewpoints are in the 74-76 deg F
   range.  Heating of this moist/unstable airmass is resulting in
   3000-4000 J/kg MLCAPE with eroding convective inhibition.  Although
   a flattened mid-level ridge is located over OK, 30-35 kt
   west-southwesterly flow in the 4-6 km layer, per KTLX VAD data,
   coupled with weak east-southeast flow at the surface, is
   contributing to sufficient deep-layer shear for supercells.  

   Although this convective scenario/setup is largely mesoscale
   dependent and void of stronger large-scale ascent, isolated severe
   storms are possible this afternoon.  Large to very large hail could
   accompany the stronger updrafts.  A tornado cannot be ruled out
   before clustering of storms eventually occurs towards evening. 
   Severe gusts will become the primary hazard later this evening, in
   addition to some lingering hail/low tornado risk.

   ..Smith/Guyer.. 05/25/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...

   LAT...LON   35959747 35579678 35169585 34659568 34309578 34229636
               34329732 34299796 34159866 34529927 35149931 35719900
               36059788 35959747 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN