Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 963

   Mesoscale Discussion 0963
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1134 PM CDT Sat May 24 2025

   Areas affected...East-central CO into western KS

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 320...

   Valid 250434Z - 250600Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 320
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Strong to isolated severe storms will remain possible
   overnight.

   DISCUSSION...An earlier cluster of storms over east-central CO has
   weakened somewhat over the last hour, though persistent
   redevelopment is occurring along its southwest flank, and there is
   some indication that a weak MCV has formed in association with this
   convection. Convection will tend to remain elevated overnight as it
   spreads east-southeastward, but MUCAPE ranging from 500-1500 J/kg
   and sufficient deep-layer shear will continue to support
   occasionally organized storms and perhaps an elevated bowing cluster
   overnight, with a threat of at least isolated hail and strong/severe
   gusts. 

   Additional elevated storms may eventually develop downstream of the
   ongoing cluster, within a low-level warm advection regime. These
   storms could also pose an isolated hail threat. With some severe
   potential expected to continue overnight, downstream watch issuance
   is possible.

   ..Dean/Mosier.. 05/25/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...

   LAT...LON   39300282 39280226 39090077 38910003 38419959 37919972
               37610005 37660037 37830178 38030246 38310308 38500334
               38690340 38930301 39070285 39180284 39300282 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN