Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 957

   Mesoscale Discussion 0957
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0452 PM CDT Sat May 24 2025

   Areas affected...portions of eastern Mississippi and southern
   Alabama

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 242152Z - 242245Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Severe threat may continue downstream of WW317.

   DISCUSSION...Ahead of an ongoing line of thunderstorms across
   south-central Mississippi, new thunderstorms development has been
   ongoing and intensifying along southeastward moving outflow. A few
   instances of severe hail around 1" have occurred with this activity.


   There is some uncertainty on maintenance of the main line of storms
   downstream of WW317. This line is moving southeastward and away from
   the better flow aloft to the north, thus better forcing and shear
   for organization. In addition, outflow has moved out ahead of the
   southern portion of this line over the last hour. The air mass ahead
   of the line across southeastern MS into southern AL remains hot and
   unstable, with MLCAPE around 2500 J/kg. Should the northern portion
   of the line be able maintain an organized cold pool, the downstream
   wind threat may continue into the evening across central/southern
   Alabama and a new watch may be warranted to cover this risk. Recent
   CAM guidance suggests the line may weaken as it moves into southern
   Alabama. As such, watch issuance remains uncertain but this area
   will be monitored for downstream threat.

   ..Thornton.. 05/24/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...JAN...

   LAT...LON   31528949 31938940 32368921 32568907 32798887 32998865
               33138847 33158846 33258837 33398803 33368754 33328676
               33168623 32688576 32178552 31648555 31138589 31118630
               31058704 31078770 31088821 31138875 31208904 31328926
               31528949 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN