Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 954

   Mesoscale Discussion 0954
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0221 PM CDT Sat May 24 2025

   Areas affected...parts of south Florida

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 241921Z - 242115Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated damaging gusts and hail are possible with
   scattered storms this afternoon. A WW is not expected.

   DISCUSSION...Across parts of south FL, strong diurnal heating atop
   seasonably deep moisture has eroded any remaining morning
   inhibition. Scattered thunderstorms have initiated along the typical
   diurnal sea breeze boundaries and should continue to do so through
   this afternoon. Despite weak background ascent, 2500 J/kg of MLCAPE
   from the MFL sounding suggests a few robust updrafts will develop. A
   few of these stronger storms may eventually result in one or more
   clusters as outflow gradually consolidates. Modest deep-layer shear
   should support some updraft organization, and isolated hail/wind
   gusts appear possible with any of the stronger cores that sustain.
   Given the lack of broader forcing and relatively limited shear, a
   broader severe risk worthy of a WW appears unlikely at this time.

   ..Lyons/Guyer.. 05/24/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...

   LAT...LON   25908145 27048239 28418215 28718083 27158015 26667999
               25478019 25248081 25908145 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN