Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 946

   Mesoscale Discussion 0946
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1011 PM CDT Fri May 23 2025

   Areas affected...the NE Panhandle

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 240311Z - 240515Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...A lone supercell may yield a swath of large hail over the
   next couple hours. Confidence is low in additional storm development
   and longevity of the severe threat into early morning, rendering
   watch issuance unlikely.

   DISCUSSION...A lone discrete supercell with a history of large hail
   reported up to golf-ball size has persisted over the past hour or so
   across a portion of southeast WY. With 40-45 kt mid-level westerlies
   sampled by the CYS/LNX VWPs, this supercell may persist for another
   couple hours despite surface temperatures in the low to mid 60s
   across the western NE Panhandle. Even cooler surface temperatures in
   the 50s farther east and diminishing MUCAPE for elevated parcels
   should eventually yield a weakening trend to this supercell into
   early morning.

   ..Grams/Mosier.. 05/24/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LBF...CYS...

   LAT...LON   41970446 42120405 42060295 41870242 41370224 41210232
               41060271 41010314 41780433 41970446 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN