Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 944

   Mesoscale Discussion 0944
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0910 PM CDT Fri May 23 2025

   Areas affected...a part of southeast CO and western KS

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 313...

   Valid 240210Z - 240315Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 313
   continues.

   SUMMARY...With WW 313 scheduled to expire at 03Z, SPC will
   coordinate with remaining WFOs for a potential extension-in-time for
   the lone supercell lingering in a part of southeast Colorado.

   DISCUSSION...A lone supercell with a history of producing a tornado
   and baseball-size hail has slowly been moving south-southeast along
   the western fringe of the MLCIN gradient near the CO/KS border. With
   further increases in MLCIN tonight amid the very pronounced elevated
   mixed-layer, longevity of this supercell is questionable beyond late
   evening. Downstream, elevated thunderstorm development remains
   possible but appears more likely to occur much farther east,
   beginning near central KS. Thus, the ongoing severe watch will
   likely be redefined for this lingering supercell and any downstream
   watch potential for overnight severe will be addressed later.

   ..Grams/Mosier.. 05/24/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...PUB...

   LAT...LON   38850258 38760192 38490151 38190150 37920175 37870216
               37960259 38620274 38850258 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN