Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 941

   Mesoscale Discussion 0941
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0249 PM CDT Fri May 23 2025

   Areas affected...The Trans-Pecos and Stockton Plateau of West Texas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 231949Z - 232145Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...A few severe wind gusts and marginally severe hail stones
   will be possible across portions of the Trans-Pecos and Stockton
   Plateau through late this afternoon.

   DISCUSSION...Convective temperatures have easily been reached under
   a mid-level ridge axis this afternoon along and ahead of a dryline
   beginning to mix eastward into portions of West TX. Visible
   satellite and radar imagery both indicate moist convection is
   deepening east of the Davis Mountains, where a well mixed boundary
   layer is in place. An unstable air mass should continue to result in
   isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development through the
   afternoon. The main concern with this activity will be severe wind
   gusts given large dewpoint-temperature spreads/inverted V profiles,
   and downdraft CAPE ~2000 J/kg. This may especially be true by late
   this afternoon if storm mergers occur. Severe hail also cannot be
   ruled out with steep mid level lapse rates in place and a slight
   increase in mid to upper-level flow anticipated over the next couple
   of hours. However, the threat of severe hail may be mitigated by
   high freezing levels and a lack of significant organization due to
   limiting deep layer effective shear. A weather watch is not expected
   at this time.

   ..Barnes/Guyer.. 05/23/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...SJT...MAF...

   LAT...LON   30060421 30400443 30790441 31270433 31610411 31830357
               31580290 31490242 31120213 30680210 30240219 30060267
               29920323 29860370 30060421 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN